How to tell if a search term is rising, falling or spiking on Google Trends
Short answer
Google Trends shows relative interest (0 to 100) for one place and time range, not search volume. To call a term rising, compare its average interest in the last part of the range with the first part: (late average − early average) ÷ early average. A single week far above the rest with a quick fall back is a spike, not a trend.
- Pick one place and one time range (for example the US, past 12 months) and keep them fixed.
- Note the average interest for the first quarter and the last quarter of the range.
- Percent change = (last-quarter average − first-quarter average) ÷ first-quarter average × 100.
- If one week is the peak and the weeks around it are far lower, treat it as a spike.
- Compare two terms only inside the same request: each request is scaled to its own peak of 100.
Copy-paste code
The same check for any list of keywords in one call (Apify API; your own Apify token)
curl -s -X POST "https://api.apify.com/v2/acts/cybermax~google-trends/run-sync-get-dataset-items" \
-H "Authorization: Bearer $APIFY_TOKEN" -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d '{"keywords": ["claude", "chatgpt"], "timeRange": "today 12-m"}'| Keyword | Verdict | Change | Peak | Latest week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| chatgpt | stable | −18.6% | 100 on 2025-11-16 | 70 (partial week) |
| claude | rising | +320.1% | 100 on 2026-06-07 | 69 (partial week) |
Source: Swellmeter (Apify Actor cybermax/google-trends) README, real run on 24 Sep 2026
Good to know
The latest week on Google Trends is usually partial, so it reads low until the week ends.
Interest of 0 means too little data for that place and period, not zero searches.
Swellmeter: Know if any search trend is rising or falling
$0.003 per keyword, failed lookups freeSwellmeter returns the verdict, % change, peak, related and rising queries and top regions per keyword at $0.003 each, compute included; failed lookups are free.
Runs on your own Apify account, pay per result; failed results are not charged.Questions
Does Google Trends show how many people searched?
No. It shows interest relative to the highest point in your chosen place and time range.
How many keywords can I compare at once?
Google Trends compares up to 5 terms on one scale; Swellmeter accepts a list and can compare up to 5 on one scale.
Free: the Free API Starter Kit
Copy-paste calls for 4 APIs with free daily tiers (CVE priority, VIN recalls, US duty rates, email checks), then 5 short emails on KEV/EPSS, MCP and free data.